Stumbling Intel will recover balance in 2023, says CEO Gelsinger

Stumbling Intel will recover balance in 2023, says CEO Gelsinger

AMD grows market share from one percent to 13 percent since 2017.

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Microprocessor giant Intel Corp has stumbled badly at a time when smaller rival Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) and others are picking up speed. It says it will regain its balance this year.

The company shocked the market on Thursday with a revenue outlook that was behind Wall Street estimates by about US$3 billion (S$3.94 billion). The weakness of the global economy only makes Intel's challenges more difficult.

Intel is still the three-hundred-pound gorilla in the market of microprocessors, called central processing units (CPUs), the brains of computers, and it says it has passed through the worst of a revamp under a new chief executive.

"We stumbled, right? We lost share; we lost momentum. We think that stabilizes this year," Chief Executive Pat Gelsinger told investors on a conference call.

Intel still dominates the markets for PC and server processing chips, with a market share greater than 70 percent, tech research firm IDC calculated.

But that is down from more than 90 percent in those markets in 2017.

"Someone going from one percent to 13 percent is significant. It tells you that now there's a viable second competitor in the server processor market, who has momentum and is gaining momentum," said IDC analyst Shane Rau.

That competitor is AMD which under the leadership of Chief Executive Lisa Su has come back from the brink of bankruptcy and has been taking business away from Intel quarter after quarter. AMD's market capitalisation is about the same as Intel's, a sign of investor confidence in AMD's growth prospects.

Rau said Intel and AMD would both face macroeconomic headwinds and challenges related to rolling out their newest chips, but that Intel also had the bigger issue of a chip glut to deal with.

"I don't think Intel is in a position yet to start recovering share" in the market, he said.

Customers of processors cannot launch products if new chip designs are late, and Intel has stumbled on delivering its latest data-centre chip, code-named Sapphire Rapids.

"Sapphire Rapids was about two years late. And so because of that, AMD has leapfrogged them," said Bob O'Donnell of TECHnalysis Research.

Worse for Intel, the benchmarks published by the two companies show that AMD's latest server chip outperforms Sapphire Rapids on "general purpose workloads", according to Bernstein analyst Stacy Rasgon.

Intel has rising competition, too, as graphics chip maker Nvidia branches into central processors and former processor customers, including Apple and Amazon, design their own chips.

Gelsinger said that 2023 would be a year of stabilising and then re-acceleration. Intel had taken some painful steps and now needed to execute a good plan, he said. Some agree.

"Intel's turnaround is taking some time, exacerbated by the economy, but I believe its plan is working," said Glenn O'Donnell, an analyst at Forrester Research.

"It is delivering on new products and its manufacturing is ramping up with agreements from other chipmakers to use Intel's manufacturing capacity."

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